Oscar Predictions (Halfway Point)
As many of my more faithful readers know, I am a bit of an amateur Oscar predictor. I tend to do very well predicting Oscar nominees by simply going by trends and buzz, instead of my personal views of the film. So here is my predictions at the halfway point. Obviously this will radically change as most of these movies have yet to be released and some will likely be pushed back to next year.
Best Picture
Vengeance
Memoirs Of A Geisha
Jarhead
Walk The Line
The New World
Other contenders: Cinderella Man, Brokeback Mountain, Elizabethtown.
Best Actor
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk The Line)
Tommy Lee Jones (The Three Burials Of Melquiades Estrada)
Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man)
George Clooney (Syriana)
Eric Bana (Vengeance)
Other contenders: Sean Penn (All The King's Men), Viggo Mortensen (A History Of Violence), Jake Gyllenhaal (Jarhead), Phillip Seymore Hoffman (Capote).
Best Actress
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Zhang Ziyi (Memoirs Of A Geisha)
Reese Witherspoon (Walk The Line)
Joan Allen (The Upside Of Anger)
Other contenders: Charlize Theron (Class Action), Annette Benning (Running With Scissors), Uma Thurman (Prime).
Best Director
Steven Spielberg (Vengeance)
Rob Marshall (Memoirs Of A Geisha)
Terrence Malick (The New World)
Sam Mendes (Jarhead)
James Mangold (Walk The Line)
Other contenders: Tommy Lee Jones (The Three Burials Of Melquiades Estrada), Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain), Ron Howard (Cinderella Man), Cameron Crowe (Elizabethtown).
Best Supporting Actor
Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
Jude Law (All The King's Men)
Peter Sarsgaard (Jarhead)
Daniel Craig (Vengeance)
Ed Harris (A History Of Violence)
Other contenders: Ken Watanabe (Memoirs Of A Geisha), Christopher Plummer (The New World), Anthony Hopkins (Proof), Matt Damon (Syriana).
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Clarkson (All The King's Men)
Meryl Streep (Prime)
Susan Sarandon (Elizabethtown)
Toni Collette (In Her Shoes)
Frances McDormand (Class Action)
Other contenders: Maria Bello (A History Of Violence), Rene Zellweger (Cinderella Man), Kirsten Dunst (Elizabethtown), Hope Davis (Proof).
Best Original Screenplay
Vengeance
Elizabethtown
The Three Burials Of Melquiades Estrada
Walk The Line
The New World
Other contenders: Cinderella Man, Match Point, Prime.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Memoirs Of A Geisha
Syriana
Jarhead
Art School Confidential
Brokeback Mountain
Other contenders: In Her Shoes, A History Of Violence, All The King's Men, Class Action, Proof.
posted by Cammo @ Tuesday, July 05, 2005
10 comments
10 Comments:
Leaving off CRASH is a pretty huge omission. Also, Robert Downey, Jr is probably shaping up to be the front runner for Best Actor.
And I wouldn't be surprised to see Woody Allen's next movie show up somewhere.
Haze - Movies like Batman Begins and Episode 3 do not ever get anything more than technical nominations.
Bart - Crash has an outside shot at garnering a couple nominations, but like Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind before it, it's buzz will die off as the Oscar heavyweights start to come out. Also, Match Point is Woody Allen'n new one, which pops up a few times on here.
Ah, now I see MATCH POINT in the screenplay category.
I don't think ETERNAL SUNSHINE is a good comparison for CRASH. CRASH had a really strong box office run and should finish with more than the KINGDOM OF HEAVEN and almost as much as CINDERELLA MAN. And unlike ETERNAL SUNSHINE, it's a pretty conventional movie that's not going to be such a tough sale to the Academy white hairs. And I'm not sure what else Lions Gate has on the schedule, but I imagine they put a lot more effort into campaigning for CRASH than Focus did for ETERNAL SUNSHINE.
Bart - You bring up some interesting points. Crash like Eternal Sunshine is a small movie that came out early in the year. I just question whether it will be forgotten come Oscar time. Movies that come out before June tend to be forgotten by the time Oscar season rolls around. Crushed by the bigger Oscar bait. Crash does have a better chance at some nominations than Kingdom Of Heaven, but probably not as good a shot as Cinderella Man.
If CINDERELLA MAN had made $100 million, it'd be a shoe-in for nominations. It'll still got a lot of support from the technical guilds, but I think it's going to be tough for it to overcome its disappointing box office.
CRASH, on the other hand, surpassed box office expectations by a good margin. Not only that, but it's managed to become socially significant in a way that most Oscar movies can't. A couple politicians have brought up the movie in discussion, and Oprah referred to her mistreatment by a Frech clothing store as her "CRASH moment."
I'm not trying to dog on Crash (a movie I have yet to see) but really it's best case scenerio is an acting nomination or 2 and a screenplay nomination. While Cinderella Man's quasi-poor showing at the box office (mainly based on a bad release date) will likely kill its chances at a Best Picture nod, it won't hurt it so much for acting nominations. It has a possible 3 acting nominations with one a pretty safe bat (Crowe and Zellwegger are loved by the Academy and Giamatti is a safe bet). If Seabiscuit has taught us anything, it's that if a movie has a winning Oscar formula, box office won't necessarily hold it down. Hell, Seabiscuit wasn't even all that good. While Crash may be the better and/or more significant movie, it is less likely to garner Oscars. Shame they did't release both Crash and Cinderella Man in November, they may have been front runners.
Ah, but SEABISCUIT did gross $120 million. It's performance at the box office and on DVD was a strong consideration in it getting so many Oscar nominations.
I think you will see Cinderella Man do much better on DVD than it did at the box office. Plus with it's Oscar pedigree, I'd still say it's a much better bet than Crash to be around once the years over.
This bitch hasn't seen 90% of these movies anyways, so whats the point of nominating them or talking about them?
What's the point of talking about anything you haven't seen? No one has seen any football yet, but plenty of people are predicting the Super Bowl. Because it's fun to predict. Not that actually seeing the movies is going to help you predict the Oscars anyways. I never claimed to have seen all the movies, nor did I claim this as fact. So, I don't see the harm in predicting, aside from angering some random anonymous people.
Post a Comment
<< Home