Oscar Predictions (Final)

With Oscar nominations due out obscenely early Tuesday morning, it is once again time to put my Oscar predictor championship belt on the line. Last year I did way better than I ever had and better than most predictors, but this year looks to be more difficult, with few locks. With that in mine, here is my official Oscar nomination predictions.



Best Picture

Brokeback Mountain
Munich
Good Night, and Good Luck
Crash
Capote

Next In Line: Walk The Line
Wild Card: The Constant Gardener

Best Actor

Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk The Line)
David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck)
Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man)

Next In Line: Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow)
Wild Card: Jeff Daniels (The Squid And The Whale)

Best Actress

Reese Witherspoon (Walk The Line)
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha)
Charlize Theron (North Country)

Next In Line: Joan Allen (Upside of Anger)
Wild Card: Keira Knightly (Pride & Prejudice)

Best Director

Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck)
Paul Haggis (Crash)
Steven Spielberg (Munich)
Fernando Meirelles (The Constant Gardener)

Next In Line: Bennett Miller (Capote)
Wild Card: Woody Allen (Match Point)

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
George Clooney (Syriana)
Matt Dillon (Crash)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)
William Hurt (A History of Violence)

Next In Line: Bob Hoskins (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Wild Card: Frank Langella (Good Night, and Good Luck)

Best Supporting Actress

Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
Amy Adams (Junebug)
Maria Bello (A History of Violence)
Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
Catherine Keener (Capote)

Next In Line: Scarlett Johannson (Match Point)
Wild Card: Laura Linney (The Squid And The Whale)

Best Original Screenplay

Crash
The Squid And The Whale
Good Night, and Good Luck
Match Point
Cinderella Man

Next In Line: Syriana
Wild Card: The 40 Year Old Virgin

Best Adapted Screenplay

Munich
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
A History of Violence

Next In Line: Walk The Line
Wild Card: King Kong

Best Documentary Feature

March of the Penguins
Murderball
Enron: The Smartest Guys In The Room
Mad Hot Ballroom
Favela Rising

Next In Line: Rize
Wild Card: The Boys of Baraka

Best Animated Feature

Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride
Howl’s Moving Castle

Next In Line: Madagascar
Wild Card: Steamboy

Best Foreign Film

Paradise Now (Palestine)
Tsotsi (South Africa)
Joyeux Noel (France)
The Child (Belgium)
Sophie Scholl (Germany)

Next In Line: Perhaps Love (Hong Kong)
Wild Card: C.R.A.Z.Y. (Canada)

Best Cinematography

Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
Memoirs of a Geisha
The Constant Gardener
The New World

Next In Line: Jarhead
Wild Card: King Kong

Best Art Direction

Brokeback Mountain
Memoirs of a Geisha
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
King Kong
Good Night, and Good Luck

Next In Line: The Chronicles of Narnia
Wild Card: Pride & Prejudice

Best Editing

Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
Crash
Munich
The Constant Gardener

Next In Line: Walk The Line
Wild Card: Capote

Best Costume Design

Memoirs of a Geisha
Walk The Line
Good Night, and Good Luck
Capote
Brokeback Mountain

Next In Line: Pride & Prejudice
Wild Card: Charlie and the Chololate Factory

Best Original Score

Brokeback Mountain
Memoirs of a Geisha
King Kong
Munich
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

Next In Line: The New World
Wild Card: Crash

Best Original Song

In The Deep (Crash)
Travelin’ Thru (Transamerica)
There’s Nothing Like A Show On Broadway (The Producers)
Hustle & Flow (Hustle & Flow)
Dicholo (The Constant Gardener)

Next In Line: Remains of the Day (The Corpse Bride)
Wild Card: Same In Any Language (Elizabethtown)

Best Visual Effects

King Kong
Star Wars: Episode 3
Batman Begins

Next In Line: The Chronicles of Narnia
Wild Card: War of the Worlds

20 Films To See In 2006

Here is my list of the 20 movies being released in 2006 that I want to see most.


Night Watch (Feb. 17)
V for Vendetta (Mar. 17)
Brick (Mar. 24)
Inside Man (Mar. 24)
A Scanner Darkly (Mar. 31)
Lucky You (Apr. 7)
Silent Hill (Apr. 21)
Art School Confidential (Apr. 28)
The DaVinci Code (May 19)
X3 (May 26)
Superman Returns (June 30)
Lady In The Water (July 21)
Miami Vice (July 28)
Grindhouse (Sept. 22)
The Children of Men (Sept. 29)
Marie Antoinette (Oct. 13)
Sunshine (Oct. 13)
Saw 3 (Oct. 27)
Tenacious D in The Pick of Destiny (Ocy. 27)
The Good Shepherd (Dec. 22)

4 Movies I Dug

Hostel - I was skeptical going into Hostel thanks in large part to how much I hated Eli Roth's last film Cabin Fever, which was freaking terrible. I'm not sure exactly what I was expecting from Hostel, but it was not what I got. For starters, this movie takes it's self seriously, which was one of my main complains from Cabin Fever. The first half plays like a sexed up teen comedy, which is the perfect segue to the second half which is where the body count starts to rise. Jay Hernandez does solid work in the lead as Paxton. Hernandez has always been an actor I thought would do big things after I saw him in Crazy/Beautiful, so I am glad to see him doing solid work. This movie just worked for me, it lacks the diabolical craziness of the Saw films, but is a worthy running mate for them in today's modern horror film landscape of crappy PG-13 remakes.


Palindromes - Maybe it is the film school student in me, but I love Todd Solondz's films. From the director of the genius darker than dark comedies Welcome to the Dollhouse and Happiness comes Palindromes, a dark comedy about a 13 year old girl desperate to become pregnant. If that doesn't sound funny to you, don't worry, Solondz is the guy who made pedophilia funny in Happiness (no, I don't find pedophilia funny, so save the emails). The lead in this film is actually played alternately by 8 different girl, which works for the film. Solondz is really in his comfort zone here and he churns out a worthy companion piece to his already stellar catalogue of films.


Munich - I meant to write about this film weeks ago after seeing it, but I have been busy and did not get around to it until now. Munich is quite simply one of the top 2 or 3 films of 2005. Spielberg more than makes up for the debacle that was War of the Worlds with this spy thriller/ meditation on terrorist. The story is about Israel's retaliation to the terrorists involved in the 1972 Munich Olympic massacre. Eric Bana excellently plays the leader of the group charged with carrying out Israel's revenge. Bana, another actor I think is due for some big things, turns in an Oscar caliber performance. He doesn't the slow burn from family man to mentally fatigued killer with precision. There are many solid supporting performances as well and the last shot of the film is absolutely haunting. This film works equally well as a top level spy film and as a serious meditation on whether fighting terrorism with terrorism is necessary and just. This is a must see.

Enron: The Smartest Guys In The Room - This documentary about the rise and subsequent fall of Enron is absolutely fascinating. I knew about how the Enron debacle turned out, but I had no idea what they were doing for years and just how evil those people were. Jail is too good a place for Skilling and Lay. This documentary plays almost like a behind the scenes of the greatest corporate heist in history. Oceans 11 in business suits. It is a little heavy on technical jargon, but you can and should work your way through it just fine.


In closing, if you aren't watching 24 and The Shield, your crazy. Best 2 shows on TV and nothing else even comes close.

Oscar Predictions

Best Picture

Brokeback Mountain
Munich
Goodnight, and Good Luck
Crash
Capote

Next In Line: Match Point
Wild Card: The Constant Gardener

Best Actor

Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk The Line)
Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow)
Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man)

Next In Line: David Strathairn (Goodnight, and Good Luck)
Wild Card: Jeff Daniels (The Squid And The Whale)

Best Actress

Reese Witherspoon (Walk The Line)
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Joan Allen (Upside of Anger)
Charlize Theron (North Country)

Next In Line: Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha)
Wild Card: Keira Knightly (Pride and Prejudice)

Best Director

Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
George Clooney (Goodnight, and Good Luck)
Paul Haggis (Crash)
Steven Spielberg (Munich)
Fernando Meirelles (The Constant Gardener)

Next In Line: Bennett Miller (Capote)
Wild Card: Woody Allen (Match Point)

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
George Clooney (Syriana)
Matt Dillon (Crash)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)
Bob Hoskins (Mrs. Henderson Presents)

Next In Line: William Hurt (A History of Violence)
Wild Card: Frank Langella (Goodnight, and Good Luck)

Best Supporting Actress

Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
Amy Adams (Junebug)
Maria Bello (A History of Violence)
Scarlett Johannson (Match Point)
Catherine Keener (Capote)

Next In Line: Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
Wild Card: Laura Linney (The Squid And The Whale)

Best Original Screenplay

Crash
The Squid And The Whale
Goodnight, and Good Luck
Match Point
Cinderella Man

Next In Line: Walk The Line
Wild Card: The 40 Year Old Virgin

Best Adapted Screenplay

Munich
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
Syriana

Next In Line: A History of Violence
Wild Card: King Kong

Food For Thought

If Peter Jackson is such a genius, why does it take him an hour longer than other great directors to establish his characters?